{"id":1467,"date":"2026-10-03T22:50:17","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T14:50:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/?p=1467"},"modified":"2026-10-03T22:55:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T14:55:14","slug":"9786264331425","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/2026\/10\/9786264331425\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u63d0\u5347\u672a\u4f86\uff1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u3001\u61c9\u8a72\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u3001\u4e0d\u8a72\uff0c\u601d\u8003\u5347\u7d1a\u7684\u56db\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e\u300b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/media\/2026\/10\/9786264331425-225x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"225\" height=\"300\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/media\/2026\/10\/9786264331425-225x300.jpg 225w, https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/media\/2026\/10\/9786264331425-768x1024.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/media\/2026\/10\/9786264331425-1152x1536.jpg 1152w, https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/media\/2026\/10\/9786264331425.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 225px) 100vw, 225px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.couldshouldmightdont.com\/\">Could Should Might Don&#8217;t<\/a>: How We Think About the Future<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ISBN 9786264331425<\/li>\n<li>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aNick Foster (\u5c3c\u514b\uff0e\u4f5b\u65af\u7279)<\/li>\n<li>\u8b6f\u8005\uff1a\u53f2\u78a9\u6021<\/li>\n<li>\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff1a\u5927\u584a\u6587\u5316<\/li>\n<li>\u51fa\u7248\u65e5\uff1a2026\/01\/02<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u66f8\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u662f <a href=\"https:\/\/x.company\/\">Google X<\/a> \u524d\u8a2d\u8a08\u7e3d\u76e3\uff0c\u8b1b\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u69cb\u4eba\u5011\u300c\u60f3\u50cf\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u300d\uff0c\u5c07\u300c\u672a\u4f86\u5b78\u300d\u7684\u601d\u7dad\u5206\u6210\u56db\u7a2e\u6d41\u6d3e\uff1a\u300cCould \u53ef\u4ee5\u300d\u6d3e\u3001\u300cShould \u61c9\u8a72\u300d\u6d3e\u3001\u300cMight \u53ef\u80fd\u300d\u6d3e\u3001\u300cDon&#8217;t \u4e0d\u8a72\u300d\u6d3e\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u70ba\u4f55\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u672a\u4f86\u60f3\u50cf\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u7121\u6cd5\u5be6\u73fe\u3001\u6216\u662f\u7121\u6cd5\u878d\u5165\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u7528\u8a5e\u5f88\u6dfa\u767d\uff0c\u4f46\u6559\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u537b\u5f88\u96e3\u5be6\u8e10\u3002\u5c24\u4ee5\u767c\u5c55\u81ea\u5df1\u7368\u7279\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3001\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5f9e\u5148\u524d\u770b\u904e\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u54c1\u6284\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u9019\u9ede\u7279\u5225\u96e3\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u6aaf\u9762\u4e0a\u7684 AI \u5de8\u64d8\u6240\u8a2d\u60f3\u7684\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6e90\u81ea\u540c\u4e00\u6279\u79d1\u5e7b\u96fb\u5f71\u53ca\u5c0f\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e14\u9019\u4e9b\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u7d30\u7bc0\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u56b4\u8b39\uff0c\u5145\u6eff\u4e86<a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/zh-tw\/%E9%BA%A5%E9%AB%98%E8%8A%AC\">\u9ea5\u9ad8\u82ac<\/a> (MacGuffin) (p.227)\u3002\u53ea\u807d\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4fbf\u4fb7\u9650\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u5275\u610f\u60f3\u50cf\u3002(\u800c\u6211\u5247\u662f\u88ab <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0103064\/\">\u9b54\u9b3c\u7d42\u7d50\u80052 (1991)<\/a> \u5f71\u97ff\u5c24\u5176\u6df1 :p)<\/p>\n<p>p.314-315 \u5728\u4ecb\u7d39\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u77ed\u6587\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.core77.com\/posts\/25678\/the-future-mundane-25678\">The Future Mundane<\/a>\u3008\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u3009\u6642\u63d0\u5230\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u548c\u5404\u4f4d\u8aaa\u8d77\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u9f13\u52f5\u5927\u5bb6\u63a1\u7528\u3008\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u3009\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u5247\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u7d66\u5404\u4f4d\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f60<strong>\u81ea\u5df1<\/strong>\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f60<strong>\u81ea\u5df1<\/strong>\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u53bb\u63a2\u7d22\u4f60<strong>\u81ea\u5df1<\/strong>\u770b\u5f85\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5404\u4f4d\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u89ba\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u6b0a\u53bb\u958b\u767c\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f60\u89ba\u5f97\u771f\u8aa0\u4e14\u80fd\u578b\u5851\u5916\u754c\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u55ae\u7d14\u63a1\u7d0d\u4f60\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u61c9\u8a72\u8aaa\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u96a8\u6ce2\u9010\u6d41\u3001\u63a5\u53d7\u5225\u4eba\u585e\u7d66\u4f60\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u8cc7\u8a0a\u3002\u4f46\u5207\u8a18\uff0c\u61c7\u8acb\u5404\u4f4d\u62b1\u6301\u56b4\u8b39\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u8acb\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u5207\u7d30\u7bc0\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u770b\u982d\u689d\u6a19\u984c\u3001\u70ab\u76ee\u7684\u5716\u50cf\u3001\u4ee4\u4eba\u76ee\u77aa\u53e3\u5446\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u5e36\u6709\u6311\u91c1\u610f\u5473\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u76f4\u64ca\u554f\u984c\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u5404\u4f4d\u8981\u601d\u8003\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u69cb\u60f3\u6703\u7528\u4ec0\u9ebc\u65b9\u5f0f<strong>\u5be6\u969b<\/strong>\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9019\u500b\u793e\u6703\u9700\u8981\u901a\u904e\u54ea\u4e9b\u6b65\u9a5f\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u90a3\u500b\u69cb\u60f3\u3002\u6211\u5fc5\u9808\u518d\u4e09\u5f37\u8abf\uff1a\u52a0\u5165\u7684\u7d30\u7bc0\uff08\u6216\u4f60\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u7d30\u7bc0\uff09\u6108\u591a\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u6108\u7cbe\u5f69\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u540c\u6a23\u662f p.315 \u5f8c\u6bb5\u5230 p.316 \u63d0\u5230\u4f5c\u8005\u770b\u4e86\u67d0\u90e8 4K \u4fee\u5fa9\u7684\u767e\u5e74\u8001\u7247\uff0c\u4fee\u5fa9\u524d\u7684\u89c0\u5f71\u611f\u6ed1\u7a3d\u3001\u9673\u820a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728 4K \u4fee\u5fa9\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5f71\u683c\u3001\u92b3\u5229\u5316\u3001\u6e05\u6670\u5316\u7b49\u7b49\u7d30\u7bc0\uff0c\u300c\u7a81\u7136\u8b93\u4e00\u5207\u5167\u5bb9\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u8c50\u5bcc\u3001\u66f4<strong>\u771f\u5be6<\/strong>\u3002\u300d\u8b93\u5f71\u7247\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u73fe\u5be6\u3001\u66f4\u6709\u5171\u9cf4\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u628a\u7d30\u7bc0\u7576\u6210\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\u4f86\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Could Should Might Don&#8217;t: How We Think About the  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reading-notes"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1467"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1471,"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1467\/revisions\/1471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alextwl.idv.tw\/memo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}